Demographic Change in Germany

2008

Hamm, Ingrid , Werding, Martin , Seitz, Helmut 저자(글)

Springer · 2007년 10월 09일

책 소개

작가정보

저자(글) Hamm, Ingrid

저자(글) Werding, Martin

저자(글) Seitz, Helmut

목차

• Contributing Authors	p. XIII
  Consequences of Demographic Change in Germany: An Introduction	p. 1
  Motivation for this Book	p. 1
  The Contributions: An Overview	p. 3
  Demographic Change in Germany	p. 9
  Adressing the Issue	p. 9
  The Demographic Development in Germany	p. 10
  Trends in Fertility	p. 11
  Trends in Mortality	p. 13
  Migration Dynamics	p. 14
  Demographic Balance	p. 15
  Future Trends Until 2050	p. 17
  Assumptions of the 11th Co-ordinated Population Prospects	p. 17
  Population Decline	p. 18
  Population Aging	p. 18
  Can Population Aging Be Reversed by Demographic Instruments?	p. 20
  Regional Aspects of Population Dynamics	p. 22
  Fertility and Mortality	p. 23
  Internal Migration	p. 25
  Regional Patterns of Demographic Change	p. 27
  Outlook: Growing or Diminishing Regional Disparities	p. 28
  Implications for Society, Economy, and Policy Makers: Challenge or Catastrophe?	p. 30
  References	p. 32
  The Effects of Aging on Labor Markets and Economic Growth	p. 35
  Introduction	p. 35
  Main Determinants of Economic Growth	p. 36
  Some Methodological Observations	p. 36
  Past Growth Trends	p. 38
  Future Demographics and Growth	p. 40
  Impact Through Labor Supply	p. 41
  Impact Through Labor Productivity	p. 43
  Long-Term Growth Scenarios	p. 50
  Growth Scenarios by the OECD	p. 51
  Growth Scenarios by the EU Commission	p. 55
  Conclusions	p. 61
  References	p. 63
  The Impact of Global Aging on Capital Markets and Housing	p. 65
  Introduction	p. 65
  The Asset Meltdown Debate	p. 66
  Aging and the Markets for Productive Capital	p. 69
  A Model of Overlapping Generations: The MEA-OLGA Model	p. 69
  The Development of Household Savings	p. 73
  Trends in Returns on Capital	p. 76
  Diversification Effects of Global Capital Markets	p. 78
  Aging and Housing Markets	p. 80
  Summary and Outlook	p. 85
  References	p. 87
  Social Insurance: How to Pay for Pensions and Health Care?	p. 89
  Introduction	p. 89
  Methodology	p. 91
  Assumptions and Intermediate Results	p. 94
  Projections for Individual Branches of Social Insurance	p. 97
  The Statutory Pension Scheme	p. 97
  Public Health Insurance	p. 103
  Public Long-Term Care Insurance	p. 109
  Unemployment Insurance	p. 111
  Sustainability of the Social Insurance System	p. 112
  Aging and General Government Fiscal Balances	p. 113
  Implicit Social Insurance Debt	p. 116
  The EPC's "Sustainability Gap"	p. 120
  Policy Options	p. 122
  References	p. 125
  The Impact of Demographic Change on Fiscal Policy in Germany	p. 129
  Introduction	p. 129
  Institutional Framework	p. 130
  Methodology	p. 137
  Data and Empirical Results	p. 145
  Estimating Age-Cost Profiles	p. 145
  The Impact of Demographic Change on Public Expenditures, 2004-2030	p. 150
  Building a More Complete Model	p. 152
  Simulation Results	p. 157
  Summary and Conclusions	p. 161
  References	p. 162
  Education and Fertility in Germany	p. 165
  Introduction	p. 165
  Education and Fertility	p. 166
  Theoretical Considerations	p. 166
  Germany's Socio-Political Context	p. 169
  Data	p. 171
  Descriptive Results	p. 172
  Analysis of the Event-History Model	p. 176
  Transition to First Births	p. 176
  Transitions to the Second and Third Child	p. 178
  Conclusions	p. 180
  References	p. 183
  Perspectives on the Political Governance of Demographic Change	p. 189
  Introduction	p. 189
  Demographic Challenges in Germany	p. 190
  Shrinkage	p. 190
  Aging	p. 191
  Heterogeneity	p. 192
  Challenges for Governance of Demographic Change	p. 195
  Budget Consolidation as a Core Challenge	p. 196
  Key Factors of Success for Good Governance of Demographic Change	p. 199
  Experiences from Other Countries	p. 199
  Implications for Germany	p. 200
  Conclusion	p. 201
  Subject Index	p. 205
  Name Index	p. 213
  Table of Contents provided by Publisher. All Rights Reserved.

기본정보

ISBN	9783540681359 ( 3540681353 )
발행(출시)일자	2007년 10월 09일
쪽수	216쪽
크기	160 * 234 * 10 mm / 544 g
총권수	1권
언어	영어